Ivory-tower and media forecasts are usually wrong - Financial Literacy

Ivory-tower and media forecasts are usually wrong

The last 12 months have shown that the media and governing elites have no idea what they are talking about. Let’s review just a few of the most glaring examples:

  1. Donald Trump has zero chance of winning the presidential primaries, let alone the presidency. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, the stock market and economy will collapse. (He won, and jobs are increasing).
  2. Britain will never leave the European Union. If Britain does leave the EU, the British economy will implode. (The British voted to leave, their economy is doing very well).
  3. If India removes high-denomination paper currency, it will reveal huge untaxed wealth and terrorism financing because they won’t turn in the soon-to-be-banned currency. Experts and economists estimated that only 50-60% of that banned currency will be turned in to banks. (But 99.9% of it was turned in). Once large currency is banned and the Indian Central Bank controls more of the economy, the economy will greatly improve. (Removing large denomination currency eliminated an estimated 5 million jobs, small businesses closed for lack of capital, and agricultural prices collapsed which financially crushed farmers; who are now protesting).
  4. The Venezuelan dictator, Maduro, certainly won’t let his countrymen starve from socialism. (Not only has 75% of Venezuelans lost 19 pounds over the last year from a lack of food, Maduro is consolidating more political power to enact even more destructive socialism where poverty has now engulfed 90% of the population).
  5. There is no way the Obama administration wiretapped or spied on the Trump presidential campaign. (Turns out several U.S. security agencies actually did, without cause or warrant, and Obama appointees made hundreds of “Unmasking” requests for the names of people working on Trump’s transition team so they could leak their names to the media to create political damage).
  6. The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 3 times in the last 3 years to get ahead of increasing inflation from the low unemployment rate. Investment advisers and media kept forecasting that this was the correct move. (Oops, new inflation numbers show that inflation is declining, not increasing, plus the velocity of money keeps declining. This means that the Federal Reserve experts have been doing the wrong thing: raising interest rates into economic weakness, exacerbating the problem).

You need accurate information in order to make planning decisions for investing, career, and business. Economists, political analysts, and investment advisers that are using an inaccurate world-view frequently make highly-inaccurate forecasts of major events. If your sources of news were totally wrong about these major events, then you may want to find some new sources of information that are using a far more accurate world view.

Comments are closed.

Menu Title