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Which stock market group are you in?

stock-market-margin-debt

Amateur investors jump into the stock market at the price peak; and they jump in with leverage (debt).

This chart shows that stock margin debt reaches a peak just before the stock market falls +20%.

So what is some of the “Smart Money” doing? Billionaire investor George Soros just spent $1.25 billion in put options on the S&P 500 index (which profits from a decline in price). George Soros made over a billion betting against the British pound, another billion betting against the Australian dollar, and more recently, another billion betting against the Japanese yen. He is now betting that the U.S. stock market is going to fall while the small average investor is borrowing money to jump into the market. On which side is your money?

Social security payments are a retirement maze you need to map out

Social Security Reform Becomes A Divisive Issue

Many people reaching their late 50’s that are tired of their career tell me they are planning on taking social security at the earliest possible age (62). The reasoning they commonly tell me is, “I want to spend the money now and who knows how long I’ll live.”

Only if they ask for advice, I tell them, “That is a colossal financial error. You have paid into this program your entire working career and now you are going to choose to settle for less than 50% of what you are entitled to each month?” Before I start listing all of the reasons why they should wait, I explain, “Social security benefits are very complicated. It is most likely that you can increase your monthly payment by 75% to 125% by mapping out the best strategy. You need to understand how to benefit from “file and suspend”, “restricted application for spousal benefits”, and many other tactics (particularly if you are married) before you make a move that permanently reduces your social security benefits.”

For most retirees, income from social security is their largest income source and greatest asset. Do not elect any benefits until you have met with an expert in social security income planning to maximize your benefits and retirement lifestyle. Remember that there are hundreds of ways to claim social security but SSA employees are legally prohibited from provided any advice.

Are your advisors a booster or anchor to your success?

meeting_jpg

When it is my recommendation to someone that they should replace an advisor with someone else (accountant, banker, lawyer, financial planner, broker, realtor, etc.), their first reaction is always, “But they are so nice and I’ve been with them for so long!”

I reply, “Every salesperson is charming and every professional is friendly. You are the CEO of your ‘family business’ and when they have continually proven that they are inappropriate for your circumstances then it is time to replace them. You are basically paying them a fortune for their friendship while they’ve driven your finances into a ditch.”

The easy test for your advisors is: are they experts for what you are doing today and what you are going to be doing in the foreseeable future? If they are not then it is time to search for a better and more appropriate replacement. Do not allow your advisors to become financial anchors dragging down your time, income, and net worth while increasing your risks. Periodically review all of your advisors and what they are doing for you to make sure they are an asset and not a liability to your financial success.

Will your estate get to people and organizations that are important to you?

When was the last time you went through your estate plan? Has anything in your life changed since then? Since I am fresh from assisting two people through this, let me comment on two frequently overlooked items.

First, your Will does not determine the recipient of your retirement accounts when you pass away. These accounts can only be assigned to the people that your retirement account administrator has in their records. Please call the company and have them mail to you who they currently have on file as your current beneficiaries are so there are no surprises. For example, you may discover that your beneficiary is an ex-spouse, a relative who has passed away, or a non-profit that no longer exists.

Second, a year does not pass without Washington making a dozen laws effecting estate planning: trusts, taxes, exemptions, caps, and a maze of other events. While you are updating your estate plan each year for changes in your circumstances and wishes, you also want to make certain that elements are not obsolete or incorrect based on current law.

Every year there is a celebrity that passes away and estate lawyers show how what they did was structured so poorly that they needlessly paid far too much in taxes, gaps were left to allow a Will to be unnecessarily contested, and some of the beneficiaries were accidentally cut out.

Do yourself and your loved ones a favor and periodically review your estate plan to keep it current and correct.

Is Your Money on Fire?

money fire

Consumer debt can creep up to large amounts even with small purchases. How you handle this debt determines whether you are financially moving ahead or falling further behind. When you have consumer debt, do you scramble to extinguish it like your hair is on fire or just ignore it? When you have consumer debt, your wallet is figuratively on fire – money you earn is already pre-spent on interest expense!

Shopping expert, Martin Lindstrom, offers 3 general tips proven to reduce your impulse purchases:

  • Keep your cash in $100 bills because it is more painful to break it than smaller denominations.
  • Go through grocery stores with only a tiny basket or even better, no basket. You’ll reduce your spending by 40%.
  • Many of your shopping decisions are made subconsciously so be more alert when there are sights, smells, and sounds to distract you (for example, a fair, grocery bakery, or casino.)

Is Your Retirement Savings on Track?

retirement assets 7-2013

The National Institute on Retirement Security released a survey this month. Some of their results show that among workers aged 55-64:

  • One third have zero retirement savings.
  • One third have retirement savings worth less than 1 year’s salary.
  • Only 8% of them have retirement savings worth over 4 times their annual salary.

 

How much should retirees have in savings?

Fidelity recommends 7 times your annual salary, Aon Hewitt recommends 11 times, other brokers recommend numbers between 8-10 times your annual salary so that you can live on 85% of your working income. You can do some math to estimate how much you may need and determine whether your retirement will be closer to financial ease or financial struggle.

The City of Detroit just declared bankruptcy due to unaffordable pension obligations. Many states, cities, and companies also have underfunded pension funds. Sooner or later, either the pensions will be reduced or contributions will have to be increased (many times this is an impossible number). Are you prepared for a reduction in your pension income? Each day, 10,000 baby-boomers hit retirement age and will strain the budgets of any program they are relying for financial relief. Make certain your personal retirement is a prosperous one by doing it on your own and under your control.

6 Years after the Financial Crisis – How is the Economy Doing?

Employment 7-2013

The recession that started in late 2007 has sharply knocked many people out of the workforce. Although it has been over 6 years there are still 12 million people that are under employed and waiting for their personal economic recovery. A generation is literally being lost to under employment: all of the normal markers of economic improvement are missing for 20-year olds. For example, many are still living at home, avoiding car ownership, missing out on a professional career, renting instead of owning a home, and replacing optimism with pessimism about the future.

Home ownership is a desirable element for a community. Home owners treat their living quarters better, take a more active role in shaping and stabilizing the community, etc. But home ownership has fallen from 69% to 65%, the lowest rate in 18 years.

These two elements, employment and housing, must stabilize and improve before any other economic strains are relieved: state and federal deficits, improving corporate sales, along with the U.S. Federal Reserve printing money and keeping interest-rates low.

Gold Price Reaching a Bottom?

 

Gold July 2013

The price of gold has fallen 30% in the last two years; this is after rising 600% over ten years.

Where will gold go from here? One market phenomenon is that the demand for paper gold (ETF’s, futures, options, certificates, and other derivatives) has plummeted while the demand for physical gold (coins and bullion) has been skyrocketing.

In countries where their currency has been wiped out (Asia, S. Europe, Latin America, etc.) there are long lines to enter shops selling a dwindling supply of physical gold. In countries with no experience with a sudden currency devaluation (U.S., Canada, Britain, France, etc.), for the average person, physical gold is simply old jewelry that you pawn for money.

This week, something new has happened, the price of gold futures has changed from upward sloping to downward sloping. Meaning the price of gold today is worth more than the futures price of gold a few months from now. (In economic terms, the price of gold has changed from contango to backwardation.) This is not supposed to happen for gold and is normally arbitraged away. For this to be maintained for gold means that there is insufficient supplies of gold so investors, banks, speculators, gold producers and users, are willing to pay more for gold today than take the risk that they won’t be able to access some in a few months.

This downward slope of futures prices for gold has only occurred 4 times in the last 14 years and each time it signaled a medium-term low in the price of gold. So, today may be a good price to buy gold before its next upward move.

Mortgage Interest-Rate Asymmetry

Mortgage rate increase

While I was growing up, my father repeatedly taught me that when mortgage interest rates are going down, they slowly creep lower. But when interest rates are rising, they leap upward. The lesson is always have a fixed interest rate for the length of time you plan on being in the home. This is because a variable interest rate can unexpectedly skip upward, well beyond what is affordable to your income, and force you out of your home. I have known people over the years whose homes were foreclosed upon when their variable mortgage interest rate ratcheted up and one issue or another prevented them from being able to re-finance.

Last year, my own bank wanted get me into an adjustable-rate mortgage. I asked, “And what do I do if interest rates move up?” He replied, “Don’t worry about it, if rates starts to move up then we’ll re-finance into a fixed rate.” Well, I’ve seen the end of that movie many times and it does not end well.

So what has happened lately? In the chart you can see that mortgage rates have risen by over 1.2% in less than 2 months. This rise is faster than mortgage rates have risen in over 50 years. As a result, more borrowers are opting for variable rates to try to save a little money. Unknowingly putting their home at risk to save a few dollars – only to lose their equity in the next round of foreclosures in a few years.

World Outlook Changed over the Weekend

Over the weekend, markets have been digesting several news events that are turning the tide in investor sentiment. For most of the year, stocks have been up, bonds have been up, and the U.S. dollar has been steady.

But then recent events include: Federal Reserve Chairman saying that he will begin tapering off the quantitative easing program of buying bonds to keep interest rates low, China is going through jitters over banking liquidity, the Bank of Japan may be losing control of the country’s interest rates, gold has fallen 34% from a year ago, and finally, long-term interest rates have risen faster than any time since 1962 along the entire yield curve (maturity dates for bonds 30 year, 20 year, 10 year, 5 year, etc.).

The combination of these events have prompted investors to re-adjust their outlook to a new investing landscape. A future with rising interest rates and all that may flow from it: downward pressure on the stock market, downward pressure on the bond market, a slowing housing market, and a rising U.S. dollar. Suddenly, over the weekend these scenarios are being talked about and priced into assets. What are all of the scenarios that your portfolio prepared for?

 

 

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