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Government budget blues

Euro bills

Financial mistakes and chronic overspending by government officials are generally covered over by increasing taxes or selling bonds. Overspending can continue until that government entity is prevented from using either mechanism and is forced to deal with the consequences of their unsustainable financial situation. Although increasing taxes and selling bonds can go on for years or decades, depending on the size of the government entity, but sooner or later, a reckoning with financial reality must occur.

This reckoning with reality arrives in 4 common stages and you will recognize them in the news, recurring over and over from across the country and globe:

  1. Continuing to increase taxes to pay for financial mistakes and unaffordable obligations.
  2. Credit rating falling which makes it more expensive to sell bonds.
  3. Debts consume a larger portion of budgets which siphons money away from normal government services. Residents then complain by voting out the incumbents, but it is too late and parties are too intractable to reach a sustainable agreement.
  4. Bankruptcy or settlement. Where a judge or creditor committee rules on how little all of the creditors will actually receive, including bondholders and pensions.

Current examples of governments in these 4 stages of financial distress:

  • Detroit’s Wayne County is headed toward bankruptcy, exactly following the city of Detroit did two years ago. The county has a structural deficit of $50 million that no tax hike can fill.
  • The city of Chicago’s credit rating was recently dropped below investment grade to junk and laid off 1,400 school administrators to fund a pension payment.
  • The state of California continues to ratchet up swaths of their already-high tax rates to fund their escalating liabilities for pensions, health care, and high-speed rail projects.
  • Greece’s economy has hit a wall after defaulting on their sovereign bonds with the IMF and may get kicked out of the Euro currency; Greek banks have issued stringent capital controls. How this unfolds will affect Italy, Spain, and other insolvent debtors using the Euro currency.
  • The territory of Puerto Rico hired bankruptcy attorneys as it is about to default on $72 billion in debt that it can never repay.
  • Venezuela just issued more capital controls on Venezuelan’s traveling abroad (reducing the currency they can exchange) to delay their inevitable default on bonds.
  • Argentina has been going through bond restructuring (bankruptcy) since this January.
  • And you may remember that the credit rating for the U.S. Federal Government was downgraded in the summer of 2011; from the highest rating of AAA down to AA+.

 

 

Should you accept a pension buyout offer?

retired

More companies are seeking to end their pension liabilities by extinguishing them with a buyout payment to those who were going to receive pension payments. Pension costs are rising which is spurring companies to get out of pensions. Two main costs are increasing: mandatory federal insurance on pensions and mandatory return assumptions are falling. When you receive a buyout offer from an employer, how do you decide what to do?

I recommend going through these five considerations for any buyout, each of which will tip toward or against accepting their offer.

  1. Are they offering you a good deal?

For example, if they are offering you $40,000 for your $350 monthly pension, you must evaluate if their offer is an appropriately high enough to replace it with an annuity. You do this by contacting a few insurance agents and ask how much it would cost you to purchase an annuity of $X, starting in X years (when the pension payments would begin). You will receive price quotes from the insurance companies but these are most likely to be higher than your employer’s offer. But how much lower is your employer’s offer, is the discount 5% or less (Ok, not too bad) or is the discount greater than 10-15% (a financially bad deal). You could also ask the agents to arrive at a comparison by going the other way, starting with your employer’s offer and then determining what their annuity payment would be.

  1. Is money in my hands a bad location for money?

Once you receive your payout, are you more likely to spend it all now or prudently buy an annuity that replaces it? If you might be tempted to spend it or invest it poorly, I recommend that you reject the buyout and keep the money out of your hands.

  1. How financially stable is my employer?

Has your company been around for 125 years or just 3 years? If your employer is not financially stable and may likely run into financial trouble in the future, your pension plan may be taken over by the federal pension system. If this occurs, you will likely face a reduction in benefits, sometimes it is a very severe reduction in your pension payments. If your employer is not long lasting or stable up to this point, I’d be far more likely to take any buyout offer to maximize the pension benefit before it shrinks. (A relative had his pension taken over by the federal government – they cut the payments in half and delayed the retirement date that he could start receiving it by an extra 5 years).

  1. Does your pension offer extra benefits?

For example, your employer’s pension may allow for early retirement or spousal benefits that make your employer’s pension far more valuable than a regular annuity. This makes a comparison more difficult but the more benefits your pension offers, the better it is to keep it.

  1. Taxes and penalties

When you receive a lump sum, you must immediately place it into an IRS qualified retirement account, such as a Roth IRA. If you do not, you’ll face a 10% penalty and ordinary federal and state income taxes on the entire amount. Are you prepared to move this money to an appropriate location before you receive it or will the payout be vaporized by taxes and penalties?

In general, it is my opinion that your money in someone else’s hands is always a highly risky location and should be avoided. So I would be inclined to accept the buyout payment unless some of these five considerations excessively tilted more toward leaving the pension money with my employer.

Art exhibit highlights financial mis-steps

 

credit cards 2

A new art exhibit by photographer Brittany Powell is called, The Debt Project. It is a series of portraits along with the models’ stories of how they created their debt situation. Powell said she wanted to create a conversation about debt and stop the isolation people feel about it.

Any amount of debt can cause stress and some stories are disheartening to read – such as debts from medical bills and long-term unemployment. However, it is clear that most of the debts were created by various forms of financial illiteracy:

  • Basic financial illiteracy – leading to large consumer debt and back taxes
  • Student loan illiteracy – leading to an insurmountable amount of debt
  • Business illiteracy – leading to a failed business with significant debt
  • Homeownership illiteracy – leading to an unnecessary foreclosure and debt
  • Car ownership illiteracy – leading to repossession and net worth destruction

If these people had been given an education on financial literacy, they could have been saved from heartache and difficulty. Several of the models recognized that they didn’t know anything about money and a few blamed society. But they all would have been financially better off than they are today with financial literacy.

Stock market participation and wealth

NYSE

Since the financial crisis of 2007, the stock market has gone up by 260% from its price low in 2009.

Have you participated in this increase?

Over any 20-year period of time, the U.S. stock market has gone up. This is one of the reasons why it is a favorable location to park long-term money.

But there is a sharp difference in stock market participation among two groups of people. Since 2007, those earning less than $30,000 a year dropped their stock market participation by 25%. In contrast, people earning over $75,000 a year maintained their stock market participation.

This participation gap, along with a rising stock market, partially explains why the wealth gap has been increasing since 2008. Is your stock market participation moving you toward the wealthier group or poorer group? The stock market is not the best place for everyone’s money, but you need to have money invested in some vehicle that returns far more than a current bank savings account; so where is your money working?

Luxury cars at bargain prices coming soon

mercedes

Today, there is a perfect storm of demand for luxury cars:

  • Interest rates are cheap
  • Gasoline prices are low
  • Luxury car manufacturers are offering lower-priced models

According to Edmunds.com, as a result of those factors, entry level luxury cars are 60% leased, up from only 43% being leased a few years ago. The arithmetic is that you can purchase a used average-price car for the same payment as a new entry-level luxury car, so more people are opting to lease the luxury car. Brands such as BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lincoln, Lexus, and Acura.

The financial opportunity will arrive in a year or so when all of these extra leased luxury cars begin to exit their lease. Later in 2016 through 2018, there will likely be a glut of these used luxury cars that will be less than 3 years old with low miles. People that are financially savvy, seeing this coming, may be preparing to grab a deal. When the prices on these cars fall with the increased supply of off-leased vehicles, you will likely be able to buy one that you like at a dramatic discount from the original sale price.

Consumer sentiment points to improving unemployment

consumer sentiment

Over the last 60 years, there has been a strong correlation between consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate. As can be seen in the chart, by a lag of 10 months, when consumer sentiment improves then the unemployment rate improves; and visa-versa.

The current consumer sentiment has run from 81.3 to 98.1, and if the correlation to the unemployment remains, then the U.S. can expect another 10 months of the unemployment rate improving.

What are some possible implications of a dropping unemployment rate?

  1. It means that for the next 10-12 months, the stock market may continue to be steady-to-upward as the unemployment rate improves.
  1. It also means the U.S. Federal Reserve will be more inclined to begin raising interest rates with such a low unemployment rate. So if you have any loans, now would be the time to re-finance them to lock in a low rate before interest rates rise.
  1. If you are considering making a career move, the next 10-12 months may be a favorable window in which to make that move.

Obamacare rates to skyrocket in 2016

operation

Whatever you are paying for health insurance from government exchanges this year, it will likely be higher next year. Prepare your budget for several out-of-pocket increases for 2016.

The health insurance rates on exchanges are set by the government. The rates for 2016 are being analyzed now and major insurers are requesting premium increases from 8% to 52% across the country. Insurers are experiencing actual costs far higher than expected and want these increases to begin to close their financial gap over the next few years.

(Unfortunately for taxpayers, any losses by the health insurance companies on exchanges is funded by taxpayers. For example, the largest insurer in Oregon experienced costs that were 61.5% higher than premiums that they charged, so federal or state taxpayers will be funding that loss).

There are a few other regulation price increases for 2016:

  1. The maximum deductible amount for an individual increases from $6,600 to $6,850
  2. The tax penalty for employers who do not offer health insurance increases to $2,160 per employee.
  3. The tax penalty for families who do not have health insurance increases to $2,085.
  4. A second tax penalty for employers: those that do offer health insurance that the government deems as unaffordable will increases to $3,240 per employee.

Obamacare subsidies are also being disputed in courts so there is not a definite financial number for residents of every state that expects to receive a subsidy for health care premiums.

The sooner you start budgeting for future expenses, the more stable your financial situation will become. Under the Affordable Care Act, mapping out your health costs and insurance is becoming a larger and more complex part of everyone’s expenses.

 

 

Chicago’s credit rating downgraded to junk

Chicago flag 1

Moody’s Investor Service just lowered the city of Chicago’s credit rating to junk-bond status.

First of all, what does this mean?

It means that, in Moody’s opinion, the bonds issued by the city of Chicago are more likely to default, so much so, that they are below an investment-grade credit rating. The Moody’s Baa2 rating prevents financial fiduciaries from investing in these bonds because they are too risky. So institutions will have to sell their bonds and it will now be far more difficult and expensive for Chicago to sell bonds in the future.

How did this happen?

When government credit ratings are impaired, it typically means structural spending (ongoing financial commitments) are growing far beyond their ability to tax. In Chicago, and the state of Illinois, their credit ratings are impaired because government employee pension obligations are continually being underfunded. What triggered the latest credit-rating decline was the Illinois Supreme Court’s recent decision to uphold the state law forbidding benefits that had been earned from being reduced.

The state of Illinois has the greatest unfunded state pension in the country and the city of Chicago has a $20 billion deficit for its four pension plans. The Illinois Supreme Court’s ruling will make it more difficult to reduce any government pension liabilities, so these unfunded liabilities will continue to grow. These unfunded liabilities are already unsustainable so some form of restructuring will have to occur as government services are slowly reduced from a lack of funding.

What should happen?

It is easy to actuarially map-out pension obligations. To be continually funded, these obligations must remain at an affordable and sustainable financial level. This is financial literacy 101 and must always be done before any financial commitments are made. Whether it is a household, company, or government, you cannot escape basic financial literacy. In my opinion, sooner or later, government employee retirement plans will be forced to transition toward private retirement plans, which means mostly self-funded accounts with some contribution from the employer. Until this happens, cities and states, like Chicago and the state of Illinois, will stumble along with unsustainable debts that will consume an increasing amount of their budgets until they go bankrupt; just like Detroit.

New graduate career advice

graduation cap

Spring is here and graduations are plentiful from high schools and colleges – so I polled a few people with very successful careers. I wanted to hear about what their advice is to launch a career for people just starting out today. Since the advice is varied, there may be something for any new graduate to consider.

Adviser #1:

In my view there is no such thing as a job, being employed is a paid job search. A job is how you improve your resume for your next job at a higher level. When you are evaluating a position, never look at the current pay, perks, or anything except how a potential job will look on your resume to future employers. Or, how will this position prepare you to advance to a higher level. This is my best advice to new graduates: it is better to be a manager at a fast food restaurant than to take a menial task at a higher pay that is in a large cubicle farm where it does not lead to further opportunity.

Adviser #2:

You should do a lot of preparation to find the best company in your industry and target how you are going to get hired by them. An industry leader is likely to be very profitable and so they’ll have more money available for support, training, technology, etc. along with higher salaries and benefits than any of their competitors. If you cannot start with them, then find the paths this company uses to recruit so you can align with them and get hired.

Adviser #3:

Always be learning and it won’t matter where you work. No matter where you work there will be new trends, technologies, and disruptive competitors. An employee that learns best will become increasingly invaluable when he or she is an expert in many important elements for the company. Yes, it will take a while for you to be noticed, and yes, your salary will always lag behind how much you contribute, but sooner or later, as it is recognized, you will move up sharply in both rank and salary.

Adviser #4:

Immediately get a side gig for income so you’re never financially dependent on a single employer. I have several freelance jobs that have led to full-time job offers. It has never been easier or more acceptable to find freelance assignments or other online work that you can do on the side. Several of my friends have a blog where they show off their work skills to get jobs, others are Uber drivers, there is always a way to have a side gig. Side work helps your finances but is also important as a potential career-building avenue that regular employees don’t have.

Adviser #5:

After I discovered I had an aptitude for sales, I made a great career of it. But if I were to start over and talk to my younger self, I would have gone straight for my dream company in my dream industry. I should have gone to their front door and said, “I’ll do anything – empty trash cans, park cars, work night shifts, unpaid internship, anything to get my foot in the door so that I can show you that I belong here.” I recommend that you go straight for your dream, and pay any price to get there, so you don’t look back later with regret.

Mapping out college aid

classroom

Colleges and universities use a federal formula for determining how much financial aid that students can receive for the upcoming college year. This formula is called the EFC, an acronym for Expected Family Contribution. The EFC is the baseline of financial support your family is expected to provide a college student. Above this baseline, colleges can provide financial assistance or grants to make a degree far more affordable.

However, college aid workers say that almost every reviewed EFC that parents fill out has errors. Meaning that families do not understand the rules well enough as they are filling out the forms. As a result, most families are unnecessarily hindering their eligibility to receive financial aid from the institution when they are applying for admission. For example, you are not required to list any qualified retirement accounts in your asset amount. If you do not know this, you will erroneously include it and receive far less in financial aid than you should be getting.

It important to understand all the rules of financial assistance – up front. For example, did you know that 529 accounts penalize you on getting financial assistance? It is very rare that money in a 529 account is a net benefit for college costs. Also, did you know that you can negotiate your financial aid package from a university or get a multi-student discount?

A degree is one of the largest expenses for any family and very few people take the time or work with an expert to minimize this cost. There is a maze of rules for qualifying and accessing financial aid for college, and if you are unaware of them, then will needlessly overpay for a degree.

There are financial planners that specialize in decreasing college costs with titles like College Aid Planning Specialist. I highly recommend finding one with a history of success and only charges a 1-time fee (normally under $200).

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