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(Part 1 of 2) The Upside-Down World of Negative Interest Rates

interest rate chart

A normal interest rate is a percentage paid and received on a loan. The borrower pays the interest and the lender receives the interest. This type of transaction goes back thousands of years. In today’s financial landscape, something different is occurring, called negative interest rates. This is when the lender is charged a percentage for the privilege of loaning money to a borrower who received the interest. It sounds crazy but this is what happens when central planners believe they know better than free markets and manipulate economies by decree. Negative interest rates do not occur naturally, they can only be imposed by force from governments that are desperate to avoid deflation in a weakening economy. Today, there are many weakening economies around the world.

The purpose of negative interest rates is an attempt to force companies and individuals to spend money to artificially jump-start economic activity. When you are charged a fee to have money in your checking account then you are going to be more likely to spend it rather than have the bank take it from you bit-by-bit. The general process starts with central banks charging commercial banks to prompt them to lend more money. These banks may or may not pass negative interest rates to business clients and private individuals. However, the longer or more negative the rates become, then the more likely banks pass those negative interest rates on to businesses and individuals.

Which countries are enacting negative interest rates?

  1. The Central Bank of Japan just announced negative interest rates. This is on top of buying much of the debt that the Japanese government is issuing.
  1. The European Central Bank has had negative interest rates since 2014 and made interest rates to commercial banks more negative, from -0.2% to -0.3%.
  1. The Netherlands is upside-down where some banks are paying mortgage holders (who have floating rates) instead of charging those mortgage holders.
  1. The central banks of Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland all have negative interest rates as well. One small Swiss bank found that the central bank’s negative interest rates subsumed all of its profit, so it now charges every account at its bank a fee of -0.125%.

One problem with artificially low and negative interest rates is that it causes mal-investment, or asset price bubbles that will pop – instead of sustainable economic activity. Another problem is that businesses and individuals will avoid banks that are chewing up their money with negative interest-rate fees and hoard cash. This is the opposite of what the central banks want – hoarding cash instead of spending money. But don’t you worry, Keynesian economists are forever coming up with additional interventions to take money from the populous to transfer to the government. For example, Miles Kimball, an economist at the University of Michigan who has been a strong proponent of negative interest rates has an idea. To help central banks around the cash hoarding problem, Kimball thinks they should charge a rate between paper bills and electronic money to incentivize people to stay in electronic money. In my opinion, this would exacerbate the cash hoarding problem and the economy would move away from banks to both cash and cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.

College goals: top grades and internships

Notre Dame

Naturally, getting top grades in college helps to access to the best career opportunities. But many college students are unaware how important it is to get a great internship as well. As a result, I have repeatedly observed a giant gap in the career launch between regular college graduates and those who battled to get a great internship.

A professional internship provides four critical benefits in launching a career:

  1. It is a trial run for a particular career field. It is best to discover as quickly as possible if a career in your major subject of study is a fit for you. You can then change majors, or focus on an industry or niche that is a better match for you. Too many enter a profession only after graduation and then learn too late that they do not enjoy that profession. That is a waste of 4 years and a fortune in tuition. Now, they are forced to either return to get another undergraduate or graduate degree to enter a more suitable career. (Plus, explain in every interview why the abrupt career change without sounding fickle.) This is a predictable lesson that is both very expensive and time consuming; and the inoculation is getting internships.
  2. It provides direct professional experience that puts you a league above all other job applicants coming out of college who do not have any professional experience. You will have skill sets that a new employer can build upon, rather than someone starting from scratch.
  3. It provides connections and networking that are unavailable to people who are not in the profession. You will learn vocabulary, industry trends, and players that outsiders will not know.
  4. If you and the company or organization go well with each other, then an internship provides the easiest transition into full time employment with that organization.

Instead of seeking an internship, too many college students choose a summer break or seek jobs with a higher pay like a restaurant where they can earn tips. With a short-term focus, they may earn a little more money over the summer, or relax and have fun. But by graduation, those with professional internships will immediately take the best jobs in their field while the rest of the graduates struggle to get job interviews and wonder how the interns got so lucky.

There are more students than there are openings for internships, so how do you go about finding them? Meet with your school’s career center, ask professors, family and friends, and job sites. If these don’t produce results for you then you have to be more proactive. For example, start contacting companies directly that you want to work for and ask to speak with hiring managers. Speak to students who have landed great internships that you are seeking. Most college students won’t take extra steps and that is also why landing an internship is so valuable; you are proving to any prospective employer that you are ambitious and get things done.

Given how much time, money, and effort you are investing to get a college degree, I highly recommend you add getting a professional internship to the top of your To Do List as well.

How to lend money and lose friends

payday loan sign

There are some easy steps for a loan to end a personal relationship:

  • Lend money to someone who will never be able to afford to pay you back
  • Make sure nothing is written down and signed
  • Be unclear on all of the loans terms and payback
  • Make sure there is no collateral for the loan
  • Lend the money in cash so even the existence of a loan cannot be proven
  • Do not use a formal promissory note template to cover all the loan terms
  • Ignore IRS rules on interest and 1099-Int forms and get penalized during an audit

Any of these steps will lead to disappointment, strain, and most likely, the end of the relationship.

When a family member or friend asks me for a loan, I either give them the money as a gift or decline altogether. Of course, it must be an amount to give that is affordable to me. This is my personal rule that I follow after having tried every other way about loaning money to friends and family. In order to explain, I’ll just make a few generalizations from my personal experience that I’ve learned over the years.

  1. I am never repaid so why even pretend it’s a loan in the first place?
  2. If they had income or credit, they wouldn’t be asking me for a loan.
  3. If they had the time to get money from a professional lender, they would have done so.
  4. If the requests for loans are never ending, that will become clear and you can start saying, “No.”
  5. If you know the money will be used to continue someone’s downward spiral, you can always say, “No.”

Every person and situation is different, so you have to use your best judgment for the circumstances. But I stick with my rule of either gifting the money or declining altogether.

Saving time and money on doctor visits

medical supplies

As medical deductibles have soared under Obamacare, many companies are moving in with technology for low-cost medical services including prescription discounts. For example, there are apps where you can video chat with a doctor and get a prescription for $35 to $55. Some non-urgent medical problems this may be appropriate for could include: cold, flu, rash, bite, sports injury, minor infection, or just to ask if you should visit a doctor for this condition.

Smartphone app examples are Doctor-on-Demand, RingaDoc, or Live Doctor Visit Now, other online versions include MDiPass.com or HealthCareMagic.com. There are many competitors so look at some current reviews and pricing to determine which one may be the most beneficial for you and your family.

Some of these providers also offer discounted group rates on prescription drugs. Medical services delivered online or with smartphones are convenient. Instead of taking the morning off of work because your child has a sore throat, you can use an app to get a quick diagnosis and possibly get prescriptions sent to your local drug store. There are doctors that even make house calls like Medicast.com or TravelMD.com.

In addition, concierge doctor services have exploded over the last two years. Doctors fed up with the increasing insurance bureaucracy coming from Washington have chosen instead to change their medical practice to service fewer patients for a higher fee. Some doctors charge between $2,500 to $25,000 per year to be available for a limited number of patients, in addition to charging for visits and procedures. Many top doctors refuse to deal with insurance bureaucracies and this has accelerated over the last three years, you must pay upfront for examinations and treatment. But even with these higher costs for patients, they can still be cheaper than the insurance deductibles that have been increasing for nearly everyone.

How to predict your career success

factory press

There is a single indicator that predicts your long-term career success. It does not matter if you are an employee, self-employed, or run a business that employs others, this will predict your success. You already know what this indicator is: your diligence and thoroughness in performing tasks. How well or poorly you perform tasks, over time, is a certain indicator of how your career will either flourish or flounder. Luckily, it is something that you can improve no matter how poorly you’ve performed in the past.

The earlier someone begins working hard, the steadier this habit becomes throughout their career. For example, children who never worked in high school or during college are simply not hard-wired to working hard. When parents or teachers set someone’s schedule all week, they rarely acquire habits of self-motivation to accomplish their own goals or to surpass the expectations of others. Studying hard and playing hard does not always correlate to working hard and cooperating with others toward a long-term goal.

So let’s examine your current work habits. Would your co-workers currently rate you as an elite performer or an average performer? Would they say that you are normally a whiner and complainer or that you silently work toward getting things done? Would they say you dodge responsibility or volunteer for new and additional assignments?

Certainly, there are bad managers and companies where a great work ethic is overlooked. But if you are an elite performer, you can figure out what you are worth in the marketplace and find a better work environment where you are treated and rewarded appropriately.

Your work habits are a result of your personal philosophy toward work along with your personal attitude about work. Is your attitude about work good or bad right now? Is your philosophy about work empowering or caustic to you and others around you? When you get both your philosophy and attitude pointed in a favorable direction then your work habits will improve automatically.

I recommend that you set a goal to becoming an elite performer. Employers reward them with increasing duties, responsibilities, promotions, company stock, rewards, perks, and much more. The first step toward managing your career is to become someone that consistently provides the most value, giving you the most options inside and outside of your company.

A tale of three retirement plans

retirement gathering

I attended an event over the weekend, mostly made up of people in their late 50’s to early 60’s. One frequent topic of discussion was retirement planning. Among this particular gathering, I noticed three distinct groups facing very different prospects in their future.

The first group never saved anything of note and have so much debt that they know they can never stop working. A few are still paying on deferred student loans, have loans on cars, and a mortgage that won’t be paid off for another +20 years. If they were ever unable to work in their future, it would be a great financial struggle and they’d likely have to move in with relatives, if any would allow it.

The second and largest group of potential retirees are counting down the months until they can retire. Their target date is either the earliest that they can receive social security benefits or the date for full social security benefits. This group is in decent financial shape but I didn’t hear of one that had actually mapped out their income and expenses for retirement, they are just going to do it and hope for the best. In one classic example, a woman had retired only two days earlier at age 62 and she still had no idea what her pension payment or discounted social security payment may be, but she said, “I believe I’ll be Ok.” Until it is mapped out, she cannot know for certain. Someone like this is a good candidate for what is called a “failed retirement.” This is when someone retires and leaves the workforce but then returns to work in 1-5 years because they discover that they cannot afford live on their retirement income. But since they are returning to the workforce with a job gap, they are now at a much lower rung with much lower pay, reduced benefits, and sometimes, longer hours. One man retired after financially mapping it out, but then had to go back to work part-time when his wife insisted on moving to a residence in a high-property tax location. His work is physically demanding and he is unsure how long he will be able to continue working. Physical capacity to work is one of the main financial risks of being forced to work late in life.

The third group, and the tiniest number, are those that can retire anytime they want. This is because their investments and real estate income is already higher than their current expenses. So they are already financially free, they just have not stopped working. Some enjoy working and others want the health insurance benefits. The people in this group all have a similar trait: from a young age, they focused on learning about investing, including direct investments like small businesses and rental real estate. While social security income makes up the vast majority of most retirees’ income, for this group, social security is a tiny amount of their income and is commonly spent on grand-kids or charity.

When you are approaching age 60, which of the three groups do you want to be heading toward? Which group would you prefer to be in? Exactly, what do you need to start doing today to make certain that you arrive there?

Transferring money between generations

the breakers

Cornelius Vanderbilt started a steamboat business and went on to create a railroad empire, making him one of the wealthiest Americans in history. One of his sons then increased the family wealth to over $300 billion in today’s-dollar terms. Within four generations, all of that family money was long gone. According to Roy Williams of the Williams Group, “60% of family wealth is spent by the first generation and 90% of the time it is all gone by the time the 3rd generation passes away.”

Even when a modest-sized inheritance is being passed to the next generation, setting up structures is important to maintain or maximize any financial transfer. There are hard structures, such as life insurance and trusts, and soft structures such as passing along financial education and family values that produced and maintained the wealth. Plus, there are tactics, such as a “stretch-IRA” to keep the funds growing tax-free as long as possible, avoiding the expense and mess of probate court, transparency and collaboration among heirs to avoid lawsuits, and a long list of others depending on your state and particular circumstances.

I have been witness to many estates unnecessarily consumed by taxes, legal squabbles, or even left inaccessible from probate or a lack of paperwork. Some people think “their heirs will do the right thing,” but when there is no Will, it is out of their hands, the probate court decides alone. The next worse estate planning is to only have a Will. Again, a Will is an instruction only for the probate court, the estate-planning goal is to totally avoid probate court. Like any important process, estate planning needs ongoing professional-level management to make certain assets are transferred to the correct people and entities, and that transfer is quick with the least amount of tax liabilities.

The next step in transferring assets is the most difficult because it requires ongoing discipline. And that is: to never spend the principal amount of any inheritance, only part of the after-tax earnings. By spending only part of the after-tax earnings, you are allowing the principal amount of money to grow larger. Which in turn will generate more investment income for you. No matter how modest the amount of money may be, its earnings could allow you to raise your spending for the rest of your life, and to your heirs as well. However, if you ever spend any of the principal amount, it is gone forevermore. Again, I have been witness to many inheritances that were vaporized upon being received by heirs, from $1,800 to very large sums of money. After the inheritance is gone, sooner or later, the only feeling that remains is regret about blowing the money. Do yourself a favor and set any unexpected or inherited money into an investment account where the principal balance is never spent for any reason.

Private equity profits for retail investors

office view

Over the last 26 years, private equity investments have beaten the S&P 500 by 18%. This is a huge advantage over investing in a regular stock index fund. But private equity deals are only for millionaires aren’t they? Yes, to invest directly into deals, however, several large private equity firms are publicly traded and pay dividends as well. This may provide you an opportunity to add Private Equity as an asset-class to your investment portfolio.

A few private equity stock candidates for you to consider include The Blackstone Group (stock ticker symbol BX), Apollo Global Management (ticker APO), The Carlyle Group (ticker CG), and Triangle Capital Corp. (ticker TCAP). As a group, the average dividend yield for these four companies is over 9%, a decent-sized yield in today’s low-interest rate environment.

Beware of rising interest rates this month

interest rates - long term

The last time the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates was almost 10 years ago, in June 2006. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the Fed has kept interest rates near zero. There is a possibility that the Fed may raise interest rates at their next meeting on December 16th.

What will happen if this is the beginning of ratcheting up interest rates to a normal price? Investments and securities that are interest-rate sensitive will begin falling in price. Many have started to already in anticipation of the December 16th announcement. These securities include bonds, bond funds, preferred stocks, utility companies, and anything else paying a fixed-rate return.

Reducing your exposure to these types of investments is the prudent financial move to make before the announcement. (If the Fed does not raise interest rates on December 16th, or it is a tiny amount, these securities may go up in value that day because increasing rates were priced-in already.)

The consensus view among economists that the Fed will raise rates has been wrong for a long time. This December could be another wrong guess. However, sooner or later, rates will rise and these securities will be negatively affected. What is your action plan to protect your portfolio if interest rates start rising?

Are you like 49% of Americans with no savings?

financial assets

GoBankingRates conducted a survey of over 5,000 people, asking, “How much money do you have in a savings account?” They found that 21% do not have a savings account and another 28% have a savings account but their balance is zero; that is a total of 49% without savings. People contribute to their 401(k), but fail to regularly contribute to normal savings. Only a tiny 14% of respondents had more than $10,000 in savings, a sign of financial stability.

The IRS reports similar results for retirement plans, only 8% of Americans invest retirement money outside of employer 401(k) plans. Since 2008, rising regulation has prompted many companies to drop their 401(k) plans for employees, so that only half of American workers even have access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan. When on their own, the average American does not consistently set aside money for savings, let alone retirement outside of a 401(k).

The graphic is a chart of Financial Assets, excluding retirement accounts. It reveals that even before the 2008 recession that savings have been falling since the 1990’s, even for people with a high income, those earning $75,000 to $100,000. These above-average income earners only have $12,500 in savings, a very small amount for potential emergencies such as job loss, home or car repairs, etc.

An unexpected repair, car replacement, or medical bill that is funded with debt instead of savings will unnecessarily consume your income and net worth. Please do not follow the masses with tiny savings and retirement accounts. A small emergency can start a cascade of financial difficulty for those without a savings cushion.

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