Stock Market Timing - The Halloween Indicator - Financial Literacy

Stock Market Timing – The Halloween Indicator

Stock SeasonalityYou may be acquainted with an old stock market saying, “Sell in May and go away.” This phrase is referring to the period of time when most of increases in the stock market occur: from Halloween to May 1st. Then, from May 1st through Halloween the stock market is flat or down. According to a study by Bouman and Jacobson in 2002, this Halloween phenomenon occurs in 36 countries and even goes back over 300 years in Britain. From other studies I have gone over, I divide the year into two parts: the stock market is strong from Halloween through April Fool’s Day and then weak from April Fool’s Day through Halloween. (Note: Each of the 4 major one-day drops in the U.S. stock market occurred during this weak period as well).

 

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